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Mr. nicely has worked on "class 3 slot machines", 20 "class 2 games", 21 online gaming, and table games. he has access to casino operations data and performs analyses to determine whether various machines have been overpaying or underpaying gamblers. mr. nicely used the same analyses and techniques in this case. these analyses and techniques are used by all major slot machine manufacturers. mr. nicely has no published articles because in his industry anything worthy of publication is a trade secret. there is a code of silence with respect to sharing information --publishing would amount to giving secrets away to the competition. for example, mr. nicely has solved a very difficult math problem associated with a process called "gambler's ruin". his associates do not have this analytical technique at their disposal, so they have to use simulators. mr. nicely's analytical solution is very powerful, and he would never publish it because it would be "spilling the beans" to his competitors. mr. nicely is required to gamble on slot machines for market research. it is very important for him to gamble for "real" money so that he can feel the gambler's emotions. accordingly, he gambles with his own money and is not reimbursed for his losses, which is industry policy, so that he feels what the machine is like. in every year that he has gambled on slot machines as part of his job, he has lost money net ; . mr. nicely credibly explained the simple five-step purely mechanical formula he used to calculate the likelihood and extent of mr. gagliardi's gambling losses at slot machines during the years in issue. mr. nicely had no discretion when calculating the results using the aforementioned formula. we find the methodology and assumptions made by mr. nicely to calculate the likelihood and extent of mr. gagliardi's gambling losses at slot machines during the years in issue to be reasonable. mr. nicely opined on the basis of the extent of mr. gagliardi's gambling activity that 1 ; mr. gagliardi's breaking even from slot machine play was astronomically unlikely substantially greater than 1 in 1 trillion ; ; 22 and 2 ; the estimated net losses from slot machine play for the tax years 1999, 2000, and 2001 were most likely approximately 7, 000, 8, 000, and 7, 000, respectively, with an error range of plus or minus , 000, , 000, and , 000, respectively. mr. nicely's estimate of mr. gagliardi's total net losses from slot machine play for the years at issue, , 822, 000 with an error range of a maximum net loss of , 042, 00 and a minimum net loss of , 602, 000 ; , is consistent and greater than mr. gagliardi's total claimed net gambling losses from slot machine play for the tax years at issue , 446, 740 ; .23 additionally, the net gambling losses from slot machine play mr. gagliardi claimed for 1999 and 2000 were significantly lower than the amount calculated by mr. nicely, and the amount claimed for 2001 was within the error range calculated by mr. nicely. respondent attempted to discredit mr. nicely by questioning the formula mr. nicely used and mr. nicely's assumptions24 by which he determined, in his expert opinion, that there was only an infinitesimal probability that mr. gagliardi won money i.e., net ; gambling on slot machines during the years in issue. respondent did not call any witness, or expert witness, to counter mr. nicely's conclusions. we find mr. nicely to be credible and rely on his expert opinion. mr. nicely credibly explained why he used the figures for return to player rtp ; set forth in his report. mr. nicely stated that the machines petitioner played are "class 2 electronic pull tab machines" which have an rtp of between 55 and 90 percent. the operating manual for such machines states that the default setting is 80 percent rtp. we conclude that mr. nicely's "best case scenario" of 90 percent rtp the figure normally used in the gaming industry ; for mr. gagliardi's expected wins or losses was reasonable, given his research, 25 his expert opinion that the casinos at which mr. respondent attempted to discredit mr. nicely by claiming that mr. nicely incorrectly calculated that mr. gagliardi played slot machines at a frequency of six times per minute, which was more often than mr. gagliardi actually played. mr. gagliardi played the slot machines at the casinos at a frequency of at least. Recommendation a requirement that gaming machines display pop-up messages to advise players when they have been playing continuously for 60 minutes should be introduced. the introduction of this measure should be accompanied by evaluation and pci slot video.
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